Thus, policymakers should not turn a blind eye to understanding the reasons for outmigration and to policies aimed at attracting return migrants.ĭepopulation trends more pronounced at the local levelĭepopulation is more associated with rural or remote areas but the divisive line between growing and shrinking regions does not follow an urban-rural divide. Investments into family-friendly policies cannot be expected to raise fertility to such high levels as they exceed fertility ideals in countries facing population decline. By contrast, replacement level fertility needed to offset outmigration stands at much higher values for emigration countries: in Romania or Bulgaria, for instance, replacement fertility would need to be about 3 children per woman once accounting for outmigration. Thus, the actual TFR of 1.8 (2018) will lead to a substantial increase of the Swedish population under the current migration regime. For instance, in a country with high net migration like Sweden, the total fertility rate (TFR) that would ensure generation replacement is estimated at below 1.2 children per woman when adjusting for migration. Conversely, countries with highly positive net migration can enjoy a stable or even increasing population despite fertility rates far below the replacement level of 2.1. In Latvia, for instance, which has lost almost one-third of its population in the last 30 years, only one-fifth of the decline is accounted for by the negative balance of births and deaths the remaining four-fifths is due to emigration.
#Eastern european female face shapes driver#
In South-Eastern, Central and Eastern Europe, outmigration has been the main driver of depopulation. There is considerable confusion in the public debate on the role played by these two elements. Low fertility and emigration are two principal demographic forces shaping the onset and the pace of population decline.
#Eastern european female face shapes drivers#
In the public and policy discourse, negative views are often emphasised but could population decline create opportunities? The conference brought together researchers from around the world working on population decline and its consequences from demographic, economic, sociological, political, environmental and geographical perspectives.ĭemographic drivers of depopulation: Accounting for emigration in population replacement is crucial for better suited policy responses The focus of the 2021 conference was on the causes and consequences of depopulation, an issue very much in the spotlight of the European Commission and beyond. From 29 November to 1 December 2021 the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna) held its annual conference.
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